(Note: I've quit playing Fire Emblem Heroes, so any changes to summoning as of 5-19-2019 will not be accounted for. Any people who would like to maintain the codebase can access the website's GitHub here. It's been real!)
This simulator uses JavaScript to run the selected number of trials. At the moment, the
maximum number of trials it can run without crashing is around 10000.
The more trials that are run, the more accurate the data.
This simulator uses the "sniping" summoning strategy. For example, if your desired focus hero is Red, the simulator will only open Red orbs
in the summoning circle. If there are no red orbs available, it will pick a random colored orb and summon that instead before exiting out of that circle.
Because of this, this summon simulator is only for calculating the chances of getting your desired focus hero, not for getting the chances of getting ANY
5* hero.
The number of heroes in the pool is updated manually, but the data is not affected in a
large way by the omission of certain heroes from the summoning pool.
From my experience, the standard deviation is around 100 orbs, so your luck varies wildly!
Mean (average) is usually a great measure of central tendency for large datasets,
but the preferred
measure in this situation is actually the median. The mean is the best when
assuming a normal distribution, but
our data is skewed right (run a simulation with 100 trials and you can see the skewness in
the histogram at the bottom of the page), which drags the mean
away from its typical value at the center of the bell curve. So you should trust the median more than the mean.